讲座主题：Responses of Housing Market to Changes in Transaction Taxes: Evidence from a Natural Experiment in Shanghai

主讲人：张传勇副教授

主持人：张利风教授

时间：2018年12月20日（周四）13：30-15：00

地点：经济学院（6号楼）210

主办单位：浙江省一流学科“应用经济学”数量经济学方向、经济学院

主讲人简介：

张传勇，上海交通大学中国城市治理研究院、国际与公共事务学院副教授。研究领域为城市与房地产经济学，以第一（英文含通讯）或独立作者在Tourism Economics、Cities、《金融研究》、《统计研究》等英文SSCI和中文期刊发表二十余篇论文，并主持国家自科基金面上基金、青年基金、教育部人文社科基金等纵向项目和多项政府决策咨询课题。

内容摘要：

This paper investigates the effect of an unexpected reduction in transaction tax on housing market in Shanghai, China. If the transacted houses were classified as “normal residential properties”, transaction tax rate would be reduced by 2%-2.5%, according to local administration. The key requirement of normal residential properties is that it should be transacted with price lower than the mandatory cap price. In 2012, Shanghai Municipal Housing Bureau announced an unexpected increase in the mandatory cap price for normal residential properties. With the universe of transaction data from 2011 to 2013, we follow the method by Best and Kleven (2018) and find a similar bunching phenomenon though to a much less extent. And for the non-bunching group, we find that after the tax reform, compared with those of non-normal residential properties, transaction prices and frequencies of normal residential properties increased by 1.7% and 7.3% respectively, despite the fact that these effects diminished after 7 months since announcement. We document some heterogeneity of the effect across geographic areas and various floor areas and find that this effect is stronger in suburban areas of the city with smaller floor areas. And these findings are robust to different sensitivity analysis.