【讲座信息】

主讲人：张继华 中国海洋大学经济学院

主持人：冯阔 浙江财经大学经济学院

时间：2023年10月13 日（周五）9:00

地点：

线下：经济学院210会议室  

线上：腾讯会议ID 792-975-358

讲座主题：

（Can China's Fuel Subsidy Reform Rebuild Fisheries Depletion?）

【内容摘要】

Input subsidies in natural resource sectors are widely believed to cause depletion of the natural resources on which those sectors rely. But identification and data challenges have stymied attempts to empirically estimate the causal effect of subsidies on natural resource depletion. China's fishing fleet is the world’s largest, and in 2016 the government changed its fuel subsidy policy for distant water vessels to one that increases with predetermined vessel characteristics. The policy features 25 thresholds at which subsidies discontinuously increase. This paper presents a framework for understanding how global fish stocks would change if China reduced its distant water fuel subsidies. Using a regression discontinuity design, we estimate that a 1% increase in fuel subsidy increases hours of fishing by 2.2%. We then use these empirical estimates in a counterfactual analysis that isolates the effect of Chinese distant water fuel subsidies on the overfishing status of global stocks. We find that reforming fuel subsidies to China's distant water fishing fleet could reduce, but not entirely eliminate, overfishing in most FAO Ocean Regions. Furthermore, a 50% reduction in distant water fuel subsidies could lead to a median gain of 5.5% in steady state fish biomass across regions, indicating that reforming fuel subsidies is a promising strategy for rebuilding depleted fish stocks.

[作者简介]

张继华，中国海洋大学经济学院副教授，中国海洋大学海洋发展研究院研究员，硕士生导师。主要研究领域为海洋资源经济学、产业经济学、环境金融、气候变化与可持续发展等。研究成果发表于Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice，Marine Policy，财经研究等学术期刊，获山东省社会科学优秀成果奖、山东省高等学校优秀科研成果奖、青岛市社会科学优秀成果奖等。主持国家社科后期资助项目、教育部人文社会科学研究项目、山东省哲学社会科学规划项目等。